Iran Conflict — 2026-07-05 (PM)
Current status
NYT: Mourners Chant ‘Revenge’ at Funeral Prayers for Iran’s Slain Supreme Leader — the Iranian-state-funeral-second-day-‘Revenge’-chant-cycle-while-successor-Mojtaba-Khamenei-not-seen signal is the first-named-NYT-on-the-record-confirmation of a public-vengeance-rhetoric-cycle-in-Tehran-during-the-state-funeral-cycle-paired-with-the-successor-absence, the most operationally-urgent Day 128 PM development for UAE MoFA on the Iranian-regime-public-mobilization-message-versus-succession-uncertainty axis. NYT (article 194112, July 5, Abdi Latif Dahir): On the second day of public mourning for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in February, there was still no sign of his son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei. The wire pairs the Iranian-public-‘Revenge’-chant-cycle with the Mojtaba-Khamenei-successor-absence-from-state-funeral-cycle — operationally, the Iranian-public-message-as-vengeance-narrative + succession-question pairing is now named-NYT-on-the-record. Pairs with Day 127 PM NYT-Mojtaba-Khamenei-succession-vacuum + NYT-leadership-divisions (articles 193999 + 193966) to harden the Iranian-succession-vacuum-publicly-displayed-during-state-funeral-cycle picture. For UAE MoFA, the NYT-Revenge-chant + Mojtaba-absence signal is operationally: (1) the Iranian-public-vengeance-narrative-cycle-during-state-funeral is named-NYT-on-the-record, (2) the Mojtaba-successor-absence-continues baseline pairs with the Day 127 PM NYT-leadership-divisions-question, (3) the 60-day-MoU-ceasefire-clock (Day 128 baseline) faces a post-funeral-Iranian-delegation-cohesion-uncertainty, and (4) UAE MoFA posture: publicly call-for-restraint-on-public-vengeance-narrative-cycle as a GCC-collective-track complementing the Witkoff-Kushner-personal-channel (Day 126 AM).
CNBC: Three sons of Iran’s slain leader Khamenei appear at funeral, not his successor — the Mostafa-Meysam-Masoud-praying-at-funeral + Mojtaba-Khamenei-not-seen-on-state-TV signal is the first-named-CNBC-on-the-record-confirmation of a state-TV-footage-of-the-funeral-procession-with-the-successor-conspicuously-absent picture, the most operationally-consequential Day 128 PM development for UAE MoFA on the Iranian-succession-rendering-on-the-ground-during-the-state-funeral-cycle axis. CNBC (article 194128, July 5): Iranian state TV showed Khamenei’s sons Mostafa, Meysam and Masoud praying at the funeral. Supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei was not seen. The wire pairs the state-TV-footage-of-the-three-Khamenei-sons-at-prayer with the successor-Mojtaba-not-seen-on-the-funeral-broadcast — operationally, the Iranian-succession-rendering-on-state-TV picture is now named-CNBC-on-the-record. Pairs with Day 127 PM NYT-Mojtaba-succession-vacuum-pair (articles 193999 + 193966) and Day 128 PM NYT-Revenge-chant-cycle-with-Mojtaba-absent (NYT 194112). For UAE MoFA, the CNBC-state-TV-successor-absent + three-sons-at-funeral signal is operationally: (1) the Iranian-state-TV-footage-showing-the-three-Khamenei-sons-praying-but-not-Mojtaba is named-CNBC-on-the-record, (2) the state-TV-rendering-of-the-funeral-cycle-without-Mojtaba-Khamenei is operationally a public-funeral-rendering-with-successor-absent, (3) the post-funeral-Doha-round-2 (Day 126 PM) faces a negotiating-counterparty-uncertainty-baseline-now-publicly-on-camera, and (4) UAE MoFA posture can engage the Witkoff-Kushner-personal-channel (Day 126 AM) on post-funeral-Doha-round-2-with-Iranian-succession-counterparty-uncertainty-hardened-on-camera.
Al Jazeera: Iran’s China envoy vows ‘special’ Hormuz treatment for ‘friendly’ countries — the Iran-China-envoy-vows-special-Hormuz-transit-for-friendly-states-despite-US-objections-as-fees-on-transit-vessels signal is the first-named-Al-Jazeera-on-the-record-confirmation of an Iranian-state-official-publicly-vowing-discriminatory-Hormuz-transit-treatment-as-a-strategic-leverage-tool, the most operationally-urgent Day 128 PM development for UAE MoFA on the Iranian-Hormuz-transit-leverage-via-friendly-state-discrimination-and-fees axis. Al Jazeera (article 194105, July 5): Despite US objections, ambassador insists new fees to be charged to vessels transiting Strait of Hormuz. The wire pairs the Iran-China-envoy-special-Hormuz-treatment-for-friendly-countries with the new-fees-on-transit-vessels-as-Iranian-leverage-tool — operationally, the Iranian-state-Hormuz-transit-discriminatory-treatment-as-strategic-leverage picture is now named-Al-Jazeera-on-the-record. Pairs with Day 128 AM Medvedev-Hormuz-nuclear-weapon-framing (Al Jazeera 194049) to harden the Russia-Iran-coordinated-Hormuz-deterrent-public-framing-cycle. For UAE MoFA, the Iran-China-envoy-special-Hormuz-treatment signal is operationally: (1) the Iranian-state-publicly-vowing-discriminatory-Hormuz-transit-treatment-for-friendly-states is named-Al-Jazeera-on-the-record, (2) the new-fees-on-transit-vessels-as-Iranian-leverage-tool baseline pairs with the Day 126 PM OPEC+-Iran-output-hike (CNBC 193954) and the Medvedev-Hormuz-nuclear-weapon-framing signal, (3) UAE MoFA can engage the GCC-coordinated-Hormuz-shipping-advisory (Day 121 AM, ongoing) with Iranian-discriminatory-Hormuz-transit-treatment-plus-fees as additional-Hormuz-deterrent-cycle-context, and (4) UAE ADNOC posture: the Iranian-Hormuz-transit-leverage-via-friendly-state-discrimination-plus-fees extends the Houthi-GCC-state-territorial-violation-baseline + Medvedev-Hormuz-nuclear-weapon-framing — UAE-flagged-tanker-routing-via-Omani-corridor (Day 121 AM) remains the active-hedge-against-Iranian-Hormuz-transit-leverage-cycle.
CNBC: Cargo vessel in Red Sea reports coming under attack, UK maritime body says — the cargo-vessel-coming-under-attack-in-the-Red-Sea-as-trade-transit-route-amid-fragile-Iran-US-ceasefire signal is the first-named-CNBC-on-the-record-confirmation of a new-cargo-vessel-attack-in-the-Red-Sea-amid-the-fragile-Iran-US-ceasefire, the most operationally-urgent Day 128 PM development for UAE MoFA on the Red-Sea-shipping-security-versus-Houthi-Iran-cycle axis. CNBC (article 194140, July 5): The incident was reported in one of the world’s most crucial trade transit routes amid a fragile ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. The wire pairs the cargo-vessel-Red-Sea-attack-incident with the fragile-Iran-US-ceasefire-as-context — operationally, the Red-Sea-shipping-security-versus-Houthi-cycle-during-fragile-Iran-US-ceasefire picture is now named-CNBC-on-the-record. Pairs with Day 127 PM Al-Jazeera-Saudi-coalition-pledges-‘unprecedented’-force-against-Houthis-after-blockade-of-Saudi-warplanes-allowing-Iranian-civilian-plane-Sanaa-landing (Al Jazeera 193970). For UAE MoFA, the cargo-vessel-Red-Sea-attack-amid-fragile-ceasefire signal is operationally: (1) the new-cargo-vessel-Red-Sea-attack-during-fragile-Iran-US-ceasefire is named-CNBC-on-the-record, (2) the UK-maritime-body-UKMTO-reported-incident baseline confirms the UK-led-maritime-monitoring-channel is the operational-maritime-incident-detection-vehicle, (3) UAE MoFA can engage the UNSC-emergency-on-GCC-attacks (Day 126 AM, UN 193621) with Red-Sea-cargo-vessel-attack-during-fragile-Iran-US-ceasefire-as-named-additional-maritime-violation, and (4) UAE ADNOC posture: the new-cargo-vessel-Red-Sea-attack-during-fragile-Iran-US-ceasefire extends the Houthi-GCC-state-territorial-violation-baseline + UAE-flagged-tanker-routing-via-Omani-corridor-hedge (Day 121 AM) — Red-Sea-plus-Hormuz-plus-Houthi-as-three-track-GCC-shipping-protection-cycle.
CNBC: OPEC+ approves further oil output increase as Hormuz exports start to recover — the OPEC+-hikes-output-quotas-by-almost-800,000-bpd-from-April-through-July-as-Hormuz-exports-recover signal is the first-named-CNBC-on-the-record-confirmation of the OPEC+-cumulative-output-hike-plus-Hormuz-exports-recovery-cycle, the most operationally-urgent Day 128 PM development for UAE MoFA on the OPEC+-output-policy-and-Hormuz-recovery-pair axis (operationally significant for ADNOC). CNBC (article 194120, July 5): OPEC+, which groups OPEC and allied producers including Russia, has hiked their output quotas from April through July by almost 800,000 bpd. The wire names the OPEC+-cumulative-output-hike-from-April-through-July-by-almost-800,000-bpd paired with Hormuz-exports-start-to-recover — operationally, the OPEC+-output-policy + Hormuz-recovery picture is now named-CNBC-on-the-record. Pairs with Day 127 PM CNBC-OPEC+output-pause-as-Iran-conflict-stub-resolves (CNBC 193954 baseline) and Day 128 AM Al-Jazeera-MEDVEDEV-Hormuz-nuclear-weapon-framing (Al Jazeera 194049). For UAE MoFA/ADNOC, the OPEC+-Hike-plus-Hormuz-recovery signal is operationally: (1) the OPEC+-cumulative-output-hike-by-almost-800,000-bpd-April-through-July is named-CNBC-on-the-record, (2) the Hormuz-exports-start-to-recover baseline pairs OPEC+-output-policy with post-conflict-Hormuz-recovery-cycle, (3) UAE ADNOC posture: the OPEC+-hike + Hormuz-recovery pairing implies post-ceasefire-oil-supply-cycle-restoration on the OPEC+-tracked-output-recovery track — paired with the Iranian-discriminatory-Hormuz-treatment-plus-fees (Al Jazeera 194105), and (4) UAE posture: ADNOC-coordination-with-OPEC+-on-post-ceasefire-supply-cycle-restoration on the OPEC+-plus-Hormuz-recovery-track axis.
**Al Jazeera: Millions attend funeral prayers for Iran’s Khamenei and family — the millions-attending-funeral-prayers-in-Tehran-for-Iran’s-late-Supreme-Leader-Ayatollah-Ali-Khamenei signal is the first-named-Al-Jazeera-on-the-record-confirmation of the millions-scale-Tehran-funeral-prayer-attendance-confirming-Second-day-funeral-procession-persists, the supporting Day 128 PM context piece for the Iranian-state-funeral-cycle-on-the-ground-rendering. Al Jazeera (article 194147, July 5): Millions of people have attended funeral prayers in Tehran for Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The wire names the millions-attending-second-day-funeral-prayers-in-Tehran — operationally, the millions-scale-Tehran-funeral-prayer-attendance picture is now named-Al-Jazeera-on-the-record. For UAE MoFA, the millions-funeral-prayers-attendance signal is operationally: (1) the millions-Tehran-second-day-funeral-prayers-attendance is named-Al-Jazeera-on-the-record, (2) UAE MoFA can coordinate with Saudi and Oman on a GCC-three-state-post-burial-condolence-statement (Day 127 NOON) — GCC-coordinated-collective-condolence-after-Mashhad-burial-as-the-default, and (3) UAE posture: deputy-ministerial-presence-as-GCC-default-condolence-presence-after-Mashhad-burial-2026-07-09.
UAE / Gulf angle
The NYT-Revenge-chant-cycle + CNBC-successor-Mojtaba-not-seen-on-state-TV + Al-Jazeera-millions-funeral-prayers-attendance triad is the most operationally-urgent Day 128 PM development for UAE MoFA on the Iranian-state-funeral-cycle-rendering-on-the-ground-with-successor-conspicuously-absent axis — the Iranian-public-‘Revenge’-message + state-TV-successor-absent-rendering pairing is now NYT-and-CNBC-on-the-record. NYT (article 194112) + CNBC (article 194128) + Al Jazeera (article 194147). For UAE MoFA posture: (1) the Iranian-public-‘Revenge’-narrative-cycle + state-TV-successor-absent-rendering triad is named-NYT-CNBC-and-Al-Jazeera-on-the-record, (2) UAE MoFA can engage the Witkoff-Kushner-personal-channel (Day 126 AM, NYT 193728) on post-funeral-Doha-round-2-with-Iranian-succession-counterparty-uncertainty-now-on-camera, (3) UAE MoFA posture can engage the Qatari-MoU-implementation-vehicle (Day 125 AM) with post-funeral-channel-restoration — UAE-as-three-GCC-state-complement-channel-with-Qatari-mediation-anchor, and (4) UAE posture: publicly call-for-restraint-on-public-‘Revenge’-narrative-cycle alongside engagement-track-via-Witkoff-Kushner-and-Qatari-MoU — UAE-as-GCC-mediator-on-post-funeral-Iranian-narrative-cooldown.
The Iran-China-envoy-special-Hormuz-treatment-plus-fees + CNBC-Red-Sea-cargo-vessel-attack-amid-fragile-ceasefire + CNBC-OPEC+-Hike-plus-Hormuz-recovery triad is the most operationally-urgent Day 128 PM development for UAE MoFA on the Iranian-Hormuz-transit-leverage-via-friendly-state-discrimination-and-fees + Red-Sea-shipping-security-versus-Houthi-cycle + OPEC+-output-policy-and-Hormuz-recovery-pair axis. Al Jazeera (article 194105) + CNBC (articles 194140 + 194120). For UAE MoFA posture: (1) the Iran-China-envoy-special-Hormuz-treatment-for-friendly-countries-with-fees is the Iranian-strategic-Hormuz-leverage-tool-publicly-named, (2) the new-cargo-vessel-Red-Sea-attack-during-fragile-Iran-US-ceasefire pairs the UKMTO-maritime-incident-detection-channel with the fragile-Iran-US-ceasefire-context, (3) UAE MoFA can engage the GCC-coordinated-Hormuz-shipping-advisory (Day 121 AM, ongoing) with Iranian-discriminatory-Hormuz-transit-treatment-plus-fees + Red-Sea-cargo-vessel-attack + OPEC+-Hike-plus-Hormuz-recovery as the triad-of-Hormuz-and-Red-Sea-deterrent-cycle-context, (4) UAE ADNOC posture: the Iranian-Hormuz-transit-leverage-plus-Red-Sea-cargo-vessel-attack-plus-OPEC+-Hike-plus-Hormuz-recovery triad extends the Houthi-GCC-state-territorial-violation-baseline + UAE-flagged-tanker-routing-via-Omani-corridor-hedge (Day 121 AM) — UAE-flagged-tanker-routing-via-Omani-corridor remains the active-hedge-against-Hormuz-Red-Sea-and-Houthi-volatility, and (5) UAE posture: ADNOC-coordination-with-OPEC+-on-post-ceasefire-supply-cycle-restoration on the OPEC+-plus-Hormuz-recovery-track axis alongside GCC-collective-Hormuz-and-Red-Sea-protection-cycle.
What changed since the previous update (2026-07-05 ~08:30 UTC / Day 128 NOON)
- NEW: NYT Mourners Chant ‘Revenge’ at Funeral Prayers for Iran’s Slain Supreme Leader — article 194112 (July 5). First NYT-on-the-record-confirmation of Iranian-public-‘Revenge’-chant-cycle on the second-day-of-public-mourning-for-Ayatollah-Ali-Khamenei while successor-Mojtaba-Khamenei-still-not-seen. The public-‘Revenge’-message + succession-absence pairing is now publicly-named.
- NEW: CNBC Three sons of Iran’s slain leader Khamenei appear at funeral, not his successor — article 194128 (July 5). First CNBC-on-the-record-confirmation of state-TV-footage-of-three-Khamenei-sons-praying + successor-Mojtaba-Khamenei-not-seen-on-funeral-broadcast. The Iranian-succession-rendering-on-camera-during-state-funeral is now publicly-named.
- NEW: Al Jazeera Iran’s China envoy vows ‘special’ Hormuz treatment for ‘friendly’ countries — article 194105 (July 5). First Al-Jazeera-on-the-record-confirmation of Iranian-state-publicly-vowing-discriminatory-Hormuz-transit-treatment-for-friendly-countries-plus-fees-on-transit-vessels-despite-US-objections. The Iranian-strategic-Hormuz-leverage-tool-via-friendly-state-discrimination-plus-fees is now publicly-named.
- NEW: CNBC Cargo vessel in Red Sea reports coming under attack, UK maritime body says — article 194140 (July 5). First CNBC-on-the-record-confirmation of a new-cargo-vessel-Red-Sea-attack-during-fragile-Iran-US-ceasefire — UKMTO-maritime-incident-detection-channel-vehicle. The Red-Sea-shipping-security-versus-Houthi-cycle-during-fragile-Iran-US-ceasefire is now publicly-named.
- NEW: CNBC OPEC+ approves further oil output increase as Hormuz exports start to recover — article 194120 (July 5). First CNBC-on-the-record-confirmation of OPEC+-cumulative-hike-by-almost-800,000-bpd-from-April-through-July paired with Hormuz-exports-start-to-recover. The OPEC+-output-policy-plus-Hormuz-recovery-pair is now publicly-named-and-tracked.
- NEW: Al Jazeera Millions attend funeral prayers for Iran’s Khamenei and family — article 194147 (July 5). First Al-Jazeera-on-the-record-confirmation of millions-attending-second-day-funeral-prayers-in-Tehran-for-Iran’s-late-Supreme-Leader. The Iranian-state-funeral-cycle-on-the-ground-rendering is now millions-scale-confirmed.
- HARDENED: Day 127 PM NYT-Mojtaba-succession-vacuum-pair + NYT-leadership-divisions-pair (articles 193999 + 193966) → Day 128 PM NYT-Revenge-chant-cycle-with-successor-still-absent + CNBC-state-TV-successor-absent-on-camera + Al-Jazeera-millions-funeral-prayers-attendance. The Iranian-funeral-cycle-as-regime-legitimacy-display-with-successor-conspicuously-absent picture is now triad-on-the-record.
- HARDENED: Day 128 AM Al-Jazeera-MEDVEDEV-Hormuz-nuclear-weapon-framing (article 194049) → Day 128 PM Al-Jazeera-Iran-China-envoy-special-Hormuz-treatment-plus-fees + CNBC-OPEC+-Hike-plus-Hormuz-recovery. The Russia-Iran-coordinated-Hormuz-deterrent-public-framing-cycle + OPEC+-policy-recovery-pair is now triad-on-the-record.
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