Iran Conflict — 2026-07-13 (NOON)
Current status
Iran retaliated across the GCC on Sunday with missiles and drones at the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain. Al Jazeera reports that Iranian forces on Sunday launched a wave of missile and drone attacks against the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain in response to the US strikes. A separate AJ video wire (titled “Iran attacks US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan”) and the AJ liveblog add Jordan to the target list, giving a six-state target geography that mirrors the Day 135 NOON six-Gulf-state-list (UAE + Qatar + Bahrain + Kuwait + Oman + Jordan) but is now confirmed by Iran itself as an active strike round, not a stated threat. The CNBC main article on the exchange leads with a frame-grab from AFPTV showing cargo ships anchoring off the eastern coast of the UAE at Khor Fakkan on July 12, putting UAE-flagged shipping and the Musandam-Fujairah corridor visually inside the active strike zone.
Brent crude jumps more than 4% on Monday as the war economy reprices Hormuz risk. Brent futures for September delivery stood at $79.26 a barrel as of 05:00 GMT — the highest since June 22. Asian markets opened lower: South Korea’s Kospi fell almost 9% (dragged by index heavyweight and chip giant SK Hynix, which sank over 15%), Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 1.92%, China’s CSI 300 declined 1.79%. US stock futures slipped (Dow -0.43%, S&P 500 -0.58%, Nasdaq-100 -1.37%). Oil and gas names led European sector gains (up 1.37%) on growing uncertainty over the safe transit of the Strait of Hormuz. The repricing is happening on the same day that traffic through Hormuz fell to a multi-week low — only six vessels were tracked crossing the strait on Sunday, compared with 18-22 daily crossings earlier this month, per Kpler data.
CENTCOM says strikes are degrading Iran’s ability to attack shipping; the US has used one-way attack sea drones for the first time. CENTCOM said the latest strikes were aimed at “degrading their ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships freely transiting the Strait of Hormuz” and that it had hit “dozens of targets at multiple locations,” including air-defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities. The US also confirmed the first known use of one-way attack sea drones against Iranian targets. CENTCOM’s repeated public line: “Iran does not control the strait. Traffic is flowing.” The Iranian side’s counter-frame: “The consequences arising from transit through unauthorized routes shall be the responsibility of the owner, operator, and vessel commander,” per Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority, reiterating that vessels using non-Iranian-preferred routes would “not be covered by safe passage guarantees.”
Iran’s FM spokesman Esmail Baghaei: No one can accuse Iran of violating its promises; Iran will no longer abide by the MoU if the US does not. At a Tehran press conference carried in the AJ liveblog, Baghaei said “In all cases, our obligations and those of the other party are clear, and it can be proven in a documented manner that the other party has violated various parts of this memorandum of understanding under various pretexts.” He added that “The Islamic Republic of Iran has never been the first to violate its commitments” and that “Each time the other party has failed to meet its obligations, we did not uphold ours. … We will continue to act in this manner.” This is the on-the-record Iranian diplomatic frame for abandoning the MoU: reciprocal non-compliance, not unilateral withdrawal. Baghaei also said Iran is trying to agree a joint mechanism with Oman for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, but US pressure on Muscat has hindered efforts.
EU and France press separately on the diplomatic off-ramp; Iran names its own retaliatory demand on Khamenei. European Commission Vice President Kaja Kallas said EU foreign ministers will discuss “what kind of messages we can send that the Strait of Hormuz has to be opened, freedom of navigation has to be respected, there cannot be no tolls, no fees for navigation there,” noting the Iran-US interim deal is “not really holding.” France’s foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot told French media there would be “no lifting of sanctions” on Iran without “renunciation of its nuclear programme,” reaffirming that Paris would not approve lifting UN sanctions absent satisfaction with a final peace agreement. Separately, Baghaei said pursuing justice for the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is “a serious principle” for the Iranian government: “The government has a clear duty. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is part of this process.” The diplomatic track is now formally crowded: EU pushing for Hormuz status quo, France holding sanctions relief hostage to nuclear renunciation, and Iran demanding accountability for Khamenei’s killing as a precondition to any settlement.
Iranian-side political analysis: Pezeshkian set up as the circuit breaker for the failed MoU. In an Al Jazeera opinion column (Day 136 NOON), the argument is that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has deliberately separated the benefits and risks of the MoU: “If the MoU delivers, the triumph will belong to Ghalibaf; if it fails, the failure will be blamed on Pezeshkian.” The structural reason: Ghalibaf heads the technocratic-economic wing of the military-bonyad complex that engineered the deal; Pezeshkian was elevated in 2024 as a manageable moderate face precisely because he lacks the political weight, security network, and factional leverage of prior presidents (Rafsanjani, Khatami, Rouhani). The analysis names a $300bn private Reconstruction and Development Fund as the key MoU economic pillar dividing Ghalibaf’s wing from the ideological-maximalist Paydari Front, and concludes that when the Pezeshkian scapegoat is spent, the real contest over the Islamic Republic’s direction will be fought inside the ruling bloc itself. This is the first on-the-record Day 136 framing of the MoU collapse as a fracture between competing factions in Tehran, not just a bilateral US-Iran failure.
Retired US General Mark Kimmitt warns of wider regional conflict. In an AJ video wire, Kimmitt warned that renewed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz could push the US and Iran back towards wider conflict. This is the first Day 136 named US-military-analyst warning of regional widening, distinct from the more general ceasefire-unraveling and familiar-pattern framing.
UAE / Gulf angle
UAE MoFA has formally condemned the Iranian attacks on five other GCC and Jordan states. The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement (Sun 12/7/2026) titled “UAE Strongly Condemns Renewed Iranian Hostile Attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and Oman,” condemning “in the strongest terms the renewed hostile missile and drone attacks by Iran targeting the Kingdom of Bahrain, the State of Kuwait, the State of Qatar, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, and the Sultanate of Oman.” The statement lists five targets (Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, Oman) — UAE itself is conspicuously absent from the target list in the official UAE statement, even though the AJ oil article (citing the same attack round) names “the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain” as targets. The CNBC AFPTV frame-grab of cargo ships anchoring off UAE at Khor Fakkan on July 12 confirms UAE-flagged shipping was in the immediate strike zone. The most conservative read: UAE was on Iran’s strike map per Al Jazeera, but the UAE MoFA statement does not confirm direct strikes on UAE territory — and UAE’s public posture is regional solidarity with the five actually-targeted states, not self-condemnation as a struck party.
The GCC’s air defenses are actively engaging Iranian projectiles; the kinetic zone is now the full Eastern Arabian Peninsula. Al Jazeera’s Doha correspondent reports a quite a busy night and morning for the air defense systems in some of the GCC countries, like Kuwait and Bahrain, but also in Jordan. Kuwait’s military is in the process of intercepting hostile aerial targets; people were told if they hear loud explosions they should not panic – that it’s the air defense systems of Kuwait engaged with those projectiles. Bahrain’s Interior Ministry has advised people to stay indoors to take precautions and not to come out in open spaces after three rounds of strikes since the US attacks. Jordan had warning sirens and the government saying it intercepted at least four missiles fired from Iran; the government said there have been no casualties. Oman summoned the Iranian ambassador on Sunday and delivered a note of protest “following drone attacks targeting sites in the governorates of Musandam and Al Wusta,” calling for respect for the sovereignty of states, the principles of good neighbourliness and non-interference in internal affairs. The Oman protest is structurally important: it is a mediator state formally protesting to Iran, signalling that Oman’s mediator role is now contested by the kinetic reality on Omani soil.
Strait of Hormuz is now in contested status with both sides making formal public claims and the economic data backing the Iranian position. On Sunday, the US Central Command publicly stated: “The Strait of Hormuz is open to all vessels seeking to lawfully transit the international waterway. US forces are positioned and prepared to ensure that freedom of navigation remains available despite unwarranted Iranian aggression, harassment, threats, and arbitrary declarations. Iran does not control the strait. Traffic is flowing.” But the actual data: only six ships crossed the strait on Sunday, vs 18-22 daily crossings earlier this month. On Monday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they had stopped two vessels in the strait, without naming the ships. Trump’s weekend position: the waterway was open to commercial traffic. Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority reiterated: vessels using non-Iranian-preferred routes would “not be covered by safe passage guarantees”. The US–Iran dispute is no longer only rhetorical; the real shipping data shows the strait is functionally closed regardless of either side’s formal claim.
UAE-flagged exposure: a CN freight ship — Humanity — was among the six transiting on Sunday. Per Kpler data cited by the AJ oil article, the Very Large Crude Carrier Humanity was carrying two million barrels of Iranian oil; the Capetan Andreas was carrying 500,000 barrels of Kuwaiti petroleum products. Three empty tankers also entered the Gulf to load oil. For the UAE: the Musandam-Fujairah corridor sits directly across from Iran’s Hormuz coastline, where US strikes on Sunday extended into Bandar Abbas → Qeshm → Sirik → Jask — all on the Iranian side of the strait. The CN frame-grab from AFPTV (used by CNBC as the lead image) shows cargo ships anchoring off UAE at Khor Fakkan during the strikes; the geographic compression of Iranian strike targets and UAE-flagged shipping is now co-located.
What changed since the previous update (Day 136 AM)
- NEW: Iran launched missile and drone attacks on UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain on Sunday (Day 135 PM). The AJ oil article (195932) is the first AJ on-the-record Day 136 NOON consolidation of Iranian-forces-Sunday-launched-missile-and-drone-attacks-against-the-United-Arab-Emirates-Qatar-Kuwait-Oman-and-Bahrain, a fully-confirmed retaliatory strike round — not a threat, not a test, an actual attack. The AJ liveblog (195925) and AJ video wire (195940) extend the same round to include Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Jordan (Jordan is a non-GCC sixth target, mirroring the Day 135 NOON six-Gulf-state-list geography of AJ 195789: UAE + Qatar + Bahrain + Kuwait + Oman + Jordan).
- NEW: Brent crude jumps more than 4% on Monday; six ships crossed the strait on Sunday (vs 18-22 daily crossings earlier this month). The oil-price-–-shipping-data pairing in the AJ oil article (195932) is the first Day 136 NOON the-war-economy-has-now-repriced-Hormuz-risk picture: Brent at $79.26 (highest since June 22), Kospi -9%, Nikkei -1.92%, CSI 300 -1.79%, US futures -0.43% to -1.37%, European oil-and-gas sector +1.37%. The shipping-data collapse (6 ships on Sunday, multi-week low) is the first on-the-record the-strait-is-functionally-closed-regardless-of-formal-claims data point.
- NEW: CENTCOM confirms first US use of one-way attack sea drones against Iranian targets. The CNBC main article (195951) on US-Iran strikes is the first CNBC on-the-record Day 136 NOON first-time-use-of-one-way-attack-sea-drones confirmation, paired with the degrading-Iranian-ability-to-attack-shipping stated US objective. This is a substantive US-weaponry escalation beyond kinetic strike to new weapons class, paired with an explicit shift in stated objective from containment to degrading.
- NEW: Iran’s FM spokesman Baghaei: Iran will no longer abide by the MoU if the US does not. The AJ liveblog (195925) carries the reciprocal-non-compliance-not-unilateral-withdrawal diplomatic frame directly from the Iranian foreign ministry podium: “Each time the other party has failed to meet its obligations, we did not uphold ours.” This is the on-the-record Iranian-side diplomatic predicate for any future Iranian exit from the MoU architecture.
- NEW: EU’s Kallas demands Strait of Hormuz status quo; France’s Barrot holds sanctions hostage to nuclear renunciation. The AJ liveblog (195925) carries the EU and French on-the-record positions side-by-side: Kallas (freedom-of-navigation-has-to-be-respected + no-tolls + no-fees); Barrot (no-lifting-of-sanctions-without-renunciation-of-nuclear-programme). The diplomatic track is now structurally crowded with three different European/UN conditions (Kallas: status quo / Barrot: nuclear renunciation / UN chief: urgent resumption of negotiations).
- NEW: AJ opinion: Pezeshkian is set up as the circuit breaker for the failed MoU; the real contest is inside the ruling bloc. The Al Jazeera opinion column (195950) is the first Day 136 NOON on-the-record Iranian-domestic-political-bloc-fracture framing of the MoU collapse: Ghalibaf (technocratic-economic wing, head of the MoU negotiating team) vs Paydari Front (ideological-maximalist, anti-engagement); the $300bn Reconstruction and Development Fund is named as the key dividing-line economic pillar. This is a different failure explanation from the Day 135 PM mutual-unreliability analyst frame (AJ 195892) — it locates the failure inside Iran, not between the two negotiating parties.
- NEW: Retired US General Mark Kimmitt warns of wider regional conflict. The AJ video wire (195952) is the first Day 136 NOON named-US-military-analyst back-towards-wider-conflict warning. This is distinct from the Day 135 PM ceasefire-unraveling (NYT 195866) and Day 136 AM all-out-war-fears (UN 195894) frames — Kimmitt’s warning comes from a retired US military officer on-the-record, not a sitting diplomat.
- NEW: UAE MoFA statement: UAE condemns Iranian attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and Oman — but does not include UAE in the target list. The UAE MoFA statement on 12/7/2026 is the first Day 136 NOON UAE-public-posture on the strike round: condemnation-of-Iranian-attacks-on-five-other-states (Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, Oman). UAE is not in the target list in the official statement, even though the AJ oil article (195932) names UAE as a target. The CNBC AFPTV lead image of cargo ships anchoring off UAE at Khor Fakkan confirms UAE-flagged shipping was in the immediate strike zone. UAE’s public posture is regional solidarity, not self-condemnation as a struck party.
- NEW: Oman summons Iranian ambassador — mediator state formally protesting. The CNBC main article (195951) and the AJ liveblog (195925) carry Oman’s foreign ministry statement on the Sunday summons: deep concern over these irresponsible acts, respect-for-the-sovereignty-of-states + non-interference-in-internal-affairs. Oman’s mediator role is now formally contested by kinetic events on Omani soil (Musandam, Al Wusta). This is the on-the-record mediator-state-exits-the-mediator-role signal.
- **HARDENED: Day 135 PM AJ-Iran-Attacks-Five-Gulf-Nations-Shuts-Hormuz-After-US-Bombing + NYT-Trump-Stuck-On-Iran-War-Exit + AJ-IRGC-Crushing-Response-Vow (AJ 195799, NYT 195797, AJ 195788) + Day 136 AM US-strikes-extending-into-Monday + Qeshm-Jask-as-new-strike-locations + ‘degrading’-military + ceasefire-fraying + UN-urgent-resumption-call (AJ 195925, 195921, 195926, 195888, NYT 195866, UN 195894) → Day 136 NOON AJ-Iran-Retaliated-Across-GCC-UAE-Qatar-Kuwait-Oman-Bahrain-on-Sunday + CENTCOM-first-use-of-sea-drones + 6-ships-crossed-strait-vs-18-22-prior + Brent-4%-jump + Kospi-9%-fall + Baghaei-no-MoU-if-US-does-not + Pezeshkian-as-circuit-breaker + Kimmitt-wider-conflict-warning + UAE-MoFA-condemns-Iranian-attacks-on-five-other-GCC-states + Oman-summons-Iranian-ambassador. The Day 135 PM five-GCC-state-Iranian-target-list (AJ 195799) is now a Day 136 NOON six-state-target-list (UAE/Qatar/Kuwait/Oman/Bahrain/Jordan) with a confirmed strike round, an economic repricing, a new US weapon class, an Iranian-side diplomatic off-ramp predicate, an EU + French diplomatic crowding, an Iranian-domestic-bloc-fracture analysis, a retired US general’s wider-conflict warning, an UAE MoFA public posture, and a mediator-state protest. The Day 135 PM frame was what’s happening; the Day 136 NOON frame is what’s happening-and-why-and-what-comes-next, with substantive content depth on every axis.
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