Iran Conflict — 2026-07-25 (AM)
Current status
Trump says the US is “locked and loaded” while seeking talks with Tehran. The language keeps diplomacy nominally open while preserving an explicit threat of further escalation.
Pakistan is reportedly pushing for renewed US-Iran talks with Chinese backing. Oil fell roughly 3% on the report, although it remained on course for a weekly gain of about 10%, showing how sharply markets remain tied to diplomatic signals.
Oman has sent a delegation to Iran to discuss managing Strait of Hormuz traffic. The Omani channel is the clearest new Gulf-led effort to address the conflict’s central maritime pressure point while US and Iranian strikes continue.
More than 60 commercial ships have reportedly been attacked around the Persian Gulf, Hormuz and Gulf of Oman since March 1. The cumulative figure confirms that the shipping crisis is no longer episodic and is broadening alongside renewed Red Sea attacks.
Trump is weighing a major escalation after meeting senior advisers, while US intelligence assesses Iran’s new leader as more open to pursuing a nuclear weapon. Together, the reports increase the risk that nuclear assessments become the rationale for a larger US strike package rather than leverage for talks.
UAE / Gulf angle
Hormuz management is moving back onto a Gulf diplomatic track. Oman’s direct talks in Tehran matter to the UAE because even partial traffic-management arrangements could reduce pressure on shipping insurance and complement the Habshan–Fujairah bypass route.
The physical threat to Gulf commerce remains severe despite the diplomacy. More than 60 reported attacks since March 1 keep Jebel Ali, Fujairah, Ruwais and UAE-linked shipping exposed to higher security, routing and insurance costs.
Market expectations point to prolonged disruption. Prediction-market traders put the odds of full Hormuz normalisation by July 2027 below 50%; this is not a forecast, but it shows that extended chokepoint risk is increasingly being priced as the base case.
What changed since the previous update
A concrete diplomatic channel has appeared: Oman is now in Tehran discussing Hormuz traffic, alongside reports of a Pakistan-China push for renewed US-Iran talks.
Washington’s posture remains internally contradictory: Trump’s new “locked and loaded” formulation places talks and immediate military readiness in the same message, after the previous update’s “massive attack” warning.
The cumulative shipping toll is now quantified at more than 60 attacked commercial vessels since March 1, strengthening the case that disruption is structural rather than a short-lived fall in tanker crossings.